Author Description

This report presents the current situation and an outlook for the major Ukrainian agricultural commodity markets until 2030 along with the update of the Ukraine country model in AGMEMOD. AGMEMOD is a system of partial equilibrium, medium-term, dynamic, multi-market and multi-country econometric models that is applied for generating projections for agricultural commodity markets of the EU and neighbour countries. In the current work, the database of the Ukraine country model in AGMEMOD has been updated to 2019-2020, the behavioural functions representing market agents re-estimated, and the beekeeping and bioethanol sectors included. The outlook rests upon a set of information and assumptions that were available and considered most plausible at the time when the analysis was conducted. For the projections, the continuation of current agricultural and trade policies in Ukraine is assumed, as well as coherent external projections that assume steady growth of the economy, declining population, increasing crude oil prices, improvement of crops and livestock production technologies, and moderate positive development of the world market prices for agricultural commodities. The cumulative impact of these macroeconomic developments is captured in the projections of agricultural markets in Ukraine. The outlook results for 2030 show that while the quantity of wheat produced will increase only marginally, maize is expected to become the dominant cereal in Ukrainian agriculture. Adaptation to climate change is the main driving force behind this trend. Domestic soya beans, rapeseed and sunflower seeds production will continue growing, along with the quantities of oilseed oils and meals. Although the further developing domestic poultry sector will drive feed demand, Ukraine will continue to be a net exporter of cereals, oilseed oils and meals. Cattle and swine farming will continue its ongoing structural change that shows the replacement of selfsubsistent producers (rural household