Author Description

This paper assesses the potential impact of the early 2020 COVID confinement measures on EU labour markets, on the basis of an analysis of the restrictions on economic activity imposed in three EU Member States (Italy, Spain and Germany). Following the legislative measures adopted, we classify all economic sectors into different categories according to the likely impact of the COVID crisis, and compare the share of employment that is likely to be strongly affected in each country. Once this is done, we apply these categories of sectors to recent data on EU employment and estimate the groups of workers that would be more or less affected by the economic lockdown measures. Finally, we use all this information to speculate about possible mid-term developments and broader socio-economic implications of the COVID crisis in Europe.