Author Description

This Paper Develops An Approach For Forecasting In Thailand Core Inflation. The Key Innovation Is To Anchor The Projections Derived From The Short-term Time-series Properties Of Core Inflation To Its Longer-run Evolution. This Involves Combining A Short-term Model, Which Attempts To Distill The Forecasting Power Of A Variety Of Monthly Indicators Purely On Goodness-of-fit Criteria, With An Equilibrium-correction Model That Pins Down The Convergence Of Core Inflation To Its Longer-run Structural Determinants. The Result Is A Promising Model For Forecasting Thai Core Inflation Over Horizons Up To 10, 24, And 55 Months, Based On A Root Mean-squared Error Criterion As Well As A Mean Absolute Error Criterion. Contents; I. Introduction; Ii. Data; Iii. Modeling Core Inflation; Iv. Conclusions; References Tao Sun. Description Based Upon Print Version Of Record. Includes Bibliographical References. English