Author Description

What the Great Recession of 2008/2009 wrought is not what is supposed. One view is that the experience of frugality ushered in enduring thrift. Another is that consumers are hardy spenders ready to pick back up once the recession ends. Neither view is correct. This Darwinian Gale of a Great Recession blew away the conviction, pervasive throughout the global economy for three decades, that economic risk had been tamed. The defining dynamic ahead will be the overhang of economic risk. Consumers see that the prior definition of value tipped the economy into collapse. They won't go back. So what will animate consumers instead? Indulging economic risk meant not worrying about consequences. Now, all ripple effects are under scrutiny. The new definition of value will center on the panoply of possible consequences. Consumers in developing markets will face this as a thorny conflict between the desire for greater consumption and the recognition that consequences might require moderation. The era of consequences will be guided by a potent ambition of responsibility and a greater emphasis on vigilance and resourcefulness. Spending will be shaped by the necessity to prioritize as consumers coordinate with networks of interests. A Darwinian Gale will tell this tale and then explore the practical business implications and applications in detail.