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Excerpt from World Agricultural Situation: October, 1979 A slowdown in world economic expansion is likely. Lagging investment and chronic inflation, exacerbated by the sharp oil price rises, have reduced growth prospects in many developed coun tries. Inflation rates are likely to remain high through 1980. The higher oil import bills will worsen trade and payment deficits. Economic prospects for the developing countries are also deteriorating. Financial problems will include higher oil import bills, oil-induced second ary price rises for other imports, loss of potential export earnings due to slower growth in developed countries, and higher costs of commercial borrow ings. Current deficits of the developing countries are expected to rise sharply in 1979 and further in 1980. Some food-importing countries may require expanded concessional shipments, but the major factor remains domestic food production. The 1979/ 80 world grain crop (including milled rice) is estimated at billion tons, down from billion. Utilization is forecast at billion, only slightly above a year earlier. At the end of 1979/ 80, grain stocks are expected to be down 17 percent from a year earlier, about equaling carryout stocks. World wheat production is expected to decline about 9 percent in The USSR will account for most of the shortfall, but declines are expected for most regions except the United States, China, and India. Coarse grain production will likely decline about 3 percent, with the greatest decline in the ussr. Production shortfalls in the ussr, Eastern Europe, and other importing countries will cause substantial growth in grain trade in now forecast at 190 million tons, 10 percent above a year earlier. Because of limited supplies andtransportation difficulties in other exporting coun tries, the United States will provide much of the forecast expansion. The u.s. Share of world grain trade is expected to increase from 51 to 55 percent. U.s. Agricultural exports are expec