Author Description

In 1996, Statistics Canada began publishing National Tourism Indicators (NTIs), which measure such key indicators as total tourism expenditures, domestic & export tourism expenditures, supply of various tourism commodities, and employment in tourism industries. The purpose of this report is to estimate the magnitude of the seasonal component in each of the 113 published NTIs over 1986-97 and to discuss the importance of seasonality for different tourism commodities and industries. After a graphical overview of seasonality in tourism demand, the report uses regression analysis to estimate the magnitude of the seasonal factor for each NTI and provides statistical answers to such questions as the differences in seasonal patterns among various NTIs. The next section compares the seasonal component in each NTI with the cyclical and trend components of the NTI. It answers the following questions: how much of the statistical variation in each NTI is explained by the seasonal component, by the trend component, and by the remaining business cycle and irregular components; whether seasonal fluctuations in each NTI dominate cyclical fluctuations; whether the amplitude of the annual seasonal cycle in tourism is larger that that of the tourism business cycle. The final section explores the determinants of the seasonal cycle and discusses whether seasonal factors are immutable, whether special events alter the seasonal pattern, and how a mild winter or cool summer affects the seasonal factors in the NTI data. The report provides a benchmark for evaluating programs toward the vision of making tourism in Canada a balanced and four-season industry.