Author Description

This thesis evaluates the ability of the IRTOOL computer simulation program to predict mirages. Using identical input conditions taken from the MAPTIP experiment database, predicted Minimum Mirage Range (MMR) and Maximum Intervision Range (MIVR) from both the IRTOOL and IRBLEM models were extracted and compared with the measurements recorded in the database. By comparison of the algorithms it was found that discrepancies in IRTOOL mirage prediction could be ascribed to the input function for significant ocean wave height, which gave values much greater than measured or used in IRBLEM. For a significant wave height close to the measured value the IRTOOL predictions were in very close agreement with observation and with IRBLEM. IRTOOL predictions were in all cases within 2.7 km and in most cases within 1.3 km of the measurements for all ranges varying from about 7-26 km. The strong temperature gradient predicted by the model within a few meters of the water surface, uncertainties in the measured range, and the variation of 0.8 to 2 deg C in Air Sea Temperature Difference are sufficient to account for the observed deviations. Differences between the model predictions and some of the problems encountered are also discussed.