Author Description

What exactly is a strategy, and can we really control the future with one, or are we doomed to float endlessly across the waves of time enduring whatever the fates or the Gods throw upon us? To answer these questions, we draw on the lessons from human experience over the last 2,500 years and consider whether a strategy can offer any real prospects of making the world, or at least some aspects of it, different. Or is this just a delusion of control which we poor weak humans need in order to cope with the unbearable uncertainty which lies ahead. We shall explore the origins of strategic thought from Sun Tzu and Confucius in ancient China, and the generals and philosophers of ancient Greece and Rome to the 13th century exploits of Genghis Khan. Their thoughts live on while ours were later influenced by others such as Machiavelli in the 16th century and Clausewitz in the 19th century; yet as Napoleon found to his cost after the Battle of Borodino, even victory can turn quickly into a shocking defeat. The canvas broadens then as business and social leaders begin to develop strategies of their own. Science too, starts to play a key role and fast modern computers, artificial intelligence and predictive analysis drawing on "big data" sets have all added new dimensions to our exploration of the future. Meanwhile, we have also achieved a greater understanding of how our brains function and of the significant cognitive limitations which play such an important part in our decision-making processes. The story continues into the 21st century where we look at the emergence of structured techniques for horizon scanning and strategic futures thinking which offer new ways of getting to grips with uncertainty and improving your chances of getting a better outcome in the face of the challenges which life throws at us all.