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The outlook for energy use worldwide presented in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) continues to show rising levels ofdemand over the next three decades, led by strong increases in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD),3 particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, account for more than half of the world'stotal increase in energy consumption over the 2012 to 2040 projection period. By 2040, energy use in non-OECD Asia exceeds thatof the entire OECD by 40 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in the IEO2016 Reference case (Figure ES-1).In the IEO2016 Reference case, total world energy consumption rises from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 815 quadrillion Btu in2040, an increase of 48%. Most of the world's energy growth will occur in the non-OECD nations, where relatively strong, longtermeconomic growth drives increasing demand for energy. Non-OECD energy consumption increases by 71% between 2012and 2040 compared with an increase of 18% in OECD nations. Energy use in the combined non-OECD region first exceeded thatof the OECD in 2007 and by 2012, non-OECD countries accounted for 57% of total world energy consumption. By 2040, almosttwo-thirds of the world's primary energy will be consumed in the non-OECD economies.Economic growth-as measured in gross domestic product (GDP)-is a key determinant in the growth of energy demand. The world'sGDP (expressed in purchasing power parity terms) rises by 3.3%/year from 2012 to 2040. The fastest rates of growth are projected forthe emerging, non-OECD countries, where combined GDP increases by 4.2%/year. In OECD countries, GDP grows at a much slower rateof 2.0%/year over the projection as a result of their more mature economies and slow or declining population growth trends. The strongprojected economic growth rates in the non-OECD drive the fast-paced growth in future energy consumption among those nations.
The International Energy Outlook 2016 projects a significant rise in global energy demand over the next three decades. This increase is primarily driven by countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly in Asia, which are expected to account for more than half of the world's total energy consumption growth between 2012 and 2040. The report forecasts that by 2040, energy use in non-OECD Asia will surpass that of the entire OECD. This growth is closely tied to projected strong long-term economic expansion in these emerging economies, contrasting with the slower growth anticipated in more mature OECD nations.
The International Energy Outlook 2016 serves as a key reference for understanding long-term global energy trends. Its projections are based on a detailed analysis of economic and demographic factors, providing a framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders. The report's emphasis on the growing energy consumption in non-OECD countries, especially in Asia, highlights critical shifts in the global energy landscape. The data presented offers insights into the drivers of future energy demand and the comparative growth rates between developed and developing economies.
Page Count:
290
Publication Date:
2016-10-07
Publisher:
CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN-10:
1539396509
ISBN-13:
9781539396505
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