Author Description

On the basis of the ROC analysis, the predictive validity of the ODARA appeared to be lower in the cross-validation sample than that in the construction sample. [...] This implementation and evaluation process will allow a direct comparison of the predictive validity of the SARA, the ODARA, or a combination of both, in the subgroup of male abusers who were referred to the treatment program, to see whether the combination of the two tools would improve predictive validity. [...] The area under the ROC curve can be taken as an index for interpreting the overall accuracy of the predictor.28 Because a perfect risk assessment instrument would have a sensitivity and specificity of one, the closer the area under the ROC curve is to unity, the more accurate the instrument is.26 An AUC of 0.50 means that the probability that any randomly selected true recidivist would score highe [...] The AUC of the summary risk ratings was 0.70, indicating that the magnitude of the association between the SARA scores and recidivism was moderate. [...] The ROC analysis was used to compare the predictive validity of the ODARA with three other instruments, the Danger Assessment (DA), the SARA Guide, and the Domestic Violence Supplementary Report (DVSR).